Compare bookmakers by RTP rather than bonuses
Published on 29 July 2026
"€100 free", "first bet refunded": bonuses are the number-one argument of bookmaker comparisons. It is a convenient criterion — one number, one promise — but it is the wrong one. A bonus is a one-off event, wrapped in conditions; the margin is levied on every bet, forever. Two operators separated by two RTP points diverge far more, over time, than by any welcome offer.
The three-step method
1. Pick benchmark markets. Two or three markets you actually bet on: the 1X2 of a top-league match, a tennis match winner, a fixture from the competition you follow. The comparison is only meaningful on the same markets at the same time.
2. Record all the odds of the market at each operator — every outcome, not just the one you care about: the margin is not spread evenly across outcomes — only the full calculation gives the true price of the market.
3. Compute each operator's RTP on those markets, and compare.
A worked example
Same football match, two operators.
Operator A: 2.00 / 3.30 / 3.70 → implied probabilities 50.0 + 30.3 + 27.0 = 107.3% → RTP 93.2%.
Operator B: 2.05 / 3.40 / 3.80 → 48.8 + 29.4 + 26.3 = 104.5% → RTP 95.7%.
Gap: 2.5 points — that is €2.50 of redistribution difference for every €100 staked on this market.
A bettor staking €20 every weekend puts about €1,000 a year in play: at the rate of the gap above, the choice of operator weighs more than most welcome bonuses — with no wagering conditions and no expiry date.
Why the bonus weighs so little
Four factual reasons. It is one-off, while the margin is recurring. It is most often paid out as free bets rather than real money — and €100 in free bets is worth nowhere near €100 in cash: the stake is not returned on winning bets, and the amount usually has to be wagered. It also comes with conditions (minimum odds, deadlines) that further reduce its value. And it is financed, precisely, by the margin: an operator that is generous in acquisition earns it back on the odds.
The honest limits of the method
The RTP measured on a given day on a given market is not a constant: it varies with matches, sports and periods. Compare across several markets and several moments before concluding. And this method produces no definitive ranking — it is a measuring tool, not an operator recommendation. The online calculator lets you note the bookmaker next to each odd and keep a history of your readings to track those gaps over time.